Please read the README file in this repository.

Missing population for Bahamas
Missing population for Diamond Princess
Missing population for Gambia
Missing population for West Bank and Gaza
Missing population for Saint Kitts and Nevis
Missing population for Kosovo
Missing population for Burma
Missing population for MS Zaandam
Missing population for Sao Tome and Principe

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,791$ on 2020-04-16

Best fit exponential: \(70.9 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,843.9}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 34.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,843.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35$ on 2020-04-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.82 \times 10^{0.045t}\) (doubling rate \(6.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51.3}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 25.0)}}\) (asimptote \(51.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,227$ on 2020-04-16

Switzerland⮸

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $26,732$ on 2020-04-16

Best fit exponential: \(2.13 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,822.5}{1 + 10^{-0.078 (t - 28.9)}}\) (asimptote \(26,822.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,281$ on 2020-04-16

Best fit exponential: \(41.4 \times 10^{0.036t}\) (doubling rate \(8.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,398.1}{1 + 10^{-0.081 (t - 31.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,398.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,551$ on 2020-04-16

Italy⮸

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $168,941$ on 2020-04-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.08 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{172,018.3}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 35.4)}}\) (asimptote \(172,018.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $22,170$ on 2020-04-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,819.8}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(22,819.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $106,607$ on 2020-04-16

US⮸

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $667,801$ on 2020-04-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.98 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.039t}\) (doubling rate \(7.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{757,507.5}{1 + 10^{-0.080 (t - 31.3)}}\) (asimptote \(757,507.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32,916$ on 2020-04-16

Best fit exponential: \(378 \times 10^{0.053t}\) (doubling rate \(5.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,566.8}{1 + 10^{-0.084 (t - 33.1)}}\) (asimptote \(45,566.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $580,182$ on 2020-04-16

United Kingdom⮸

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $104,145$ on 2020-04-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.92 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.041t}\) (doubling rate \(7.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{133,048.3}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(133,048.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,759$ on 2020-04-16

Best fit exponential: \(231 \times 10^{0.049t}\) (doubling rate \(6.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,652.1}{1 + 10^{-0.094 (t - 30.3)}}\) (asimptote \(16,652.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $90,011$ on 2020-04-16

Sweden⮸

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,540$ on 2020-04-16

Best fit exponential: \(416 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,546.0}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 40.6)}}\) (asimptote \(17,546.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,333$ on 2020-04-16

Best fit exponential: \(31.5 \times 10^{0.048t}\) (doubling rate \(6.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,614.2}{1 + 10^{-0.086 (t - 28.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,614.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,657$ on 2020-04-16

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 97%
Korea, South recovered 65%
Iceland recovered 46%
Austria recovered 46%
Iran recovered 40%
Switzerland recovered 33%
New Zealand recovered 33%
Uruguay recovered 33%
Thailand recovered 29%
Iraq recovered 27%
Taiwan* recovered 25%
Germany recovered 22%
Malaysia recovered 10%
Denmark recovered 8%

China⮸

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,403$ on 2020-04-16

Best fit exponential: \(4.26 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{81,751.8}{1 + 10^{-0.094 (t - 14.9)}}\) (asimptote \(81,751.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,346$ on 2020-04-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,293.6}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 17.6)}}\) (asimptote \(3,293.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,656$ on 2020-04-16

Korea, South⮸

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,613$ on 2020-04-16

Best fit exponential: \(3.84 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,854.9}{1 + 10^{-0.085 (t - 14.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,854.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $229$ on 2020-04-16

Best fit exponential: \(31.4 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{256.8}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 32.4)}}\) (asimptote \(256.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,627$ on 2020-04-16

Iceland⮸

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,739$ on 2020-04-16

Best fit exponential: \(151 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,805.4}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,805.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8$ on 2020-04-16

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $587$ on 2020-04-16

Austria⮸

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $14,476$ on 2020-04-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,158.2}{1 + 10^{-0.095 (t - 26.8)}}\) (asimptote \(14,158.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $410$ on 2020-04-16

Best fit exponential: \(19.4 \times 10^{0.039t}\) (doubling rate \(7.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{460.6}{1 + 10^{-0.084 (t - 25.9)}}\) (asimptote \(460.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,080$ on 2020-04-16

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸